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The Agentic Intelligence Report

BREAKING
Validate AI Factory Changes with Digital Twins and AI Agents (NVIDIA Developer Blog)•Man Says He Was Mortified When His AI Agent Posted His Bank Balances and Exactly What He’s Spending His Money on in a Slack Work Channel (Futurism AI)•MLLMs Fail to Refuse when Using Tools Agentically (arXiv cs.AI)•Proxy Confidence: Auditing Black-Box LLM Agents with a Surrogate's Log-Probabilities (arXiv cs.AI)•Helping teens learn, plan, and shape the future of AI (OpenAI Blog)•Introducing Playground: Create and play custom games (Google AI Blog)•Meta’s Muse launches on iPad just a month after its mobile debut (TechCrunch AI)•ChatGPT for Teens keeps teens talking, even during mental health crises (TechCrunch AI)•These Researchers Made AI Drive a Toyota Corolla to Get In-N-Out (Wired AI)•ChatGPT’s ‘Intelligent UI’ update fills its responses with pictures, charts, and buttons (The Verge AI Feed)•Validate AI Factory Changes with Digital Twins and AI Agents (NVIDIA Developer Blog)•Man Says He Was Mortified When His AI Agent Posted His Bank Balances and Exactly What He’s Spending His Money on in a Slack Work Channel (Futurism AI)•MLLMs Fail to Refuse when Using Tools Agentically (arXiv cs.AI)•Proxy Confidence: Auditing Black-Box LLM Agents with a Surrogate's Log-Probabilities (arXiv cs.AI)•Helping teens learn, plan, and shape the future of AI (OpenAI Blog)•Introducing Playground: Create and play custom games (Google AI Blog)•Meta’s Muse launches on iPad just a month after its mobile debut (TechCrunch AI)•ChatGPT for Teens keeps teens talking, even during mental health crises (TechCrunch AI)•These Researchers Made AI Drive a Toyota Corolla to Get In-N-Out (Wired AI)•ChatGPT’s ‘Intelligent UI’ update fills its responses with pictures, charts, and buttons (The Verge AI Feed)
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Education Subsection

P(DOOM) Calculator

A compact Bayesian toy for reasoning about catastrophic-risk assumptions without dragging that tool into the homepage payload.

Dark premium observatory scene with cascading probability arcs, a distant horizon, and precise signal geometry representing catastrophic-risk reasoning without readable text.

Reasoning Tool

Useful for structured thinking. Dangerous when treated like certainty.

This calculator is a toy model for making assumptions explicit: arrival, agentic behavior, controllability, and hostility. It is not a forecast engine. Its value is in exposing how much your conclusion depends on each conditional belief.

Good forSurfacing assumptions and sensitivity
Bad forPretending one toy posterior is real-world truth
Best useAs a thinking aid inside debate and education

Signal Tool

P(DOOM) Calculator

Explore how your assumptions multiply into a terminal-risk estimate.

Bayesian network nodes: D = ASI in 10y, A = agentic, U = uncontrollable, H = hostile.

Posterior via Bayes: P(E|D) = P(E|D)P(D) / [P(E|D)P(D) + P(E|¬D)P(¬D)]

How to use it

Change one assumption at a time

  • Move one conditional at a time and watch how sensitive the posterior becomes.
  • Use it to compare assumptions between people, not to fake precision.
  • Pair it with the AI Debates page if you want the argument layer around the math.

The value here is disciplined disagreement. The same headline can imply very different futures depending on the assumptions you quietly brought in before doing the math.

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